BULLETIN

Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 49A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018

200 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 ...FLORENCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND INCREASING IN SIZE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...INLAND FLOODING TO FOLLOW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 66.2W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES
Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities
WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border

* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico

Rivers

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border

* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states

should monitor the progress of Florence.  Additional watches may be

required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.
Earliest reasonable arrival time of Tropical Storm Force winds


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located

near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 66.2 West. Florence is moving

toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-

northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in

forward speed are expected during the next couple of days.  On the

forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the

southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through

Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South

Carolina in the hurricane watch area Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale.  Florence is expected to begin re-

strengthening later today and continue a slow strengthening trend

for the next day or so.  While some weakening is expected on

Thursday, Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major

hurricane through landfall.

Hurricane-force winds have expanded outward and now extend up to 60

miles (95 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds have also

expanded and now extend outward up to 170 miles (280 km) from the

center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).
U.S. Rainfall QPF (from WPC)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...2-4 ft

Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...4-6 ft

Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico

River...6-12 ft

Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...5-8 ft

Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and

destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative

timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over

short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall

accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts to 30

inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and

Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This

rainfall could produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant

river flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by

late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions

possible by Thursday morning.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and

portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult

products from your local weather office.



NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

David M. Higgins II, Publisher/Editor

David M. Higgins was born in Baltimore and grew up in Southern Maryland. He has had a passion for journalism since high school. After spending many years in the Hospitality Industry he began working in...