Americans continued a long-term shift toward lower-cost, lower-tax regions in 2025-2026 migration patterns, with the South and select Mountain West states leading gains while high-cost Northeast and West Coast areas saw outflows, according to U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates and moving industry data released in early 2026. Overall U.S. population growth slowed sharply to 0.5% (1.78 million added) from July 2024 to July 2025, driven by a 54% drop in net international migration from 2.7 million to 1.3 million, exposing reliance on immigration for growth in many metros.
Domestic migration highlighted the trend: South Carolina topped state percentage growth at 1.5%, followed by Idaho (1.4%), North Carolina (1.3%), and Texas (1.2%). Texas added the most residents in absolute terms (391,243 total, with strong domestic component), followed by Florida (196,980) and North Carolina (145,907). U-Haul’s Growth Index ranked Texas No. 1 for 2025 based on one-way truck rentals, with Florida No. 2, North Carolina No. 3, Tennessee No. 4, and South Carolina No. 5. United Van Lines’ study placed Oregon No. 1 for inbound moves (64.5%), followed by South Carolina (60.8%), Delaware (59.7%), and North Carolina (57.8%).
Texas and Florida shifted to “balanced” status in United Van Lines data—meaning inbound and outbound moves nearly equal—for the first time recently, signaling a slowdown in their pandemic-era boom. Florida’s statewide domestic net migration fell 80% from its peak to about 64,000.
States losing population included California (down ~9,000), Hawaii (~2,000), Vermont (~1,800), West Virginia (~1,000-2,000), and New Mexico (~1,000). California faced persistent domestic outmigration (~230,000 net loss annually), previously offset by immigration that dropped ~70% to ~109,000, tipping it into decline. New Jersey led outbound in United Van Lines for eight years (though improving to 62% outbound), while California ranked last on U-Haul for six years.
Metro trends split by size: Smaller Southern metros grew fastest percentage-wise, with nine of the top 10 in the South (five in Florida), driven by affordability and shorter commutes. Ocala, Florida, topped U-Haul cities for the third time in four years. Larger metros relied heavily on immigration; New York added 213,403 but lost ~119,000 domestically annually. At least five big metros (Washington, Philadelphia, Miami, Boston, Seattle) would have declined without international inflows.
The Sun Belt boom decelerated in places like Tampa (domestic inflow down 70%), Orlando (nearly vanished), and Atlanta (flipped to net loss). Housing costs, rising insurance, and flood risks contributed; high-flood-risk areas saw net domestic outflow of 29,027 in 2024, with Miami-Dade losing 67,418.
The Midwest gained traction as an affordable alternative. Minneapolis and Indianapolis flipped to net domestic inflows per Redfin/Census analysis. Minnesota appeared on United Van Lines’ top inbound list for the first time, and Minneapolis entered U-Haul’s top 25 growth metros. Zillow highlighted Midwest hotspots like Rockford, Illinois; Toledo, Ohio; Dearborn, Michigan; South Bend, Indiana; and Carmel, Indiana, amid median home prices far below coastal levels ($317,100 Midwest vs. $625,800 West).
Reasons for moving prioritized family proximity (29% in United Van Lines), followed by jobs (26%) and retirement (14%), linked to remote work stability (25% of workdays from home). Low-tax states (no income tax in nine, including Florida, Texas, Tennessee) drew inflows; high-tax states lost net residents.
Maryland experienced modest overall growth of ~0.32% (adding ~20,000 to reach ~6,263,220 by July 2025 from 6,263,220 in 2024 estimates, wait—from sources: from 6,217,062 in 2023 to 6,263,220 in 2024, but Vintage 2025 shows July 2024 6,263,220 to July 2025 6,265,347, small gain). This was driven by net international migration (~53,100), offsetting net domestic outmigration of ~12,127 to ~18,509 (sources vary slightly on exact figure for 2024-2025 period, consistently negative). Maryland ranked low in domestic migration (e.g., 45th or near bottom), with long-term losses (120,435 net domestic outflow 2020-2024). In United Van Lines, Maryland appeared in high outbound city data (e.g., Hagerstown 88% outbound). Southern Maryland (Calvert, Charles, St. Mary’s counties) projected steady growth through 2025-2030 per state planning data, but statewide trends reflect high costs and taxes pushing some residents elsewhere. Baltimore City saw rare gains in prior estimates (e.g., +754 to 568,271 in 2023-2024), but metro stabilization remains immigration-dependent amid regional outflows.