ANNAPOLIS — Forecasters are calling for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, but Southern Maryland residents are being reminded that even a quiet year requires serious preparation for the threats that come with living along the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its official outlook May 21, predicting 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. There is a 55% chance of below-normal activity, a 35% chance of near-normal and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season. The primary reason is the expected development of El Niño conditions, which increase wind shear and suppress tropical storm formation.
Colorado State University and other private forecasters issued similar outlooks, with most calling for 11 to 15 named storms and activity at or below the long-term average. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs June 1 through November 30.
For Southern Maryland — Calvert, Charles and St. Mary’s counties — a below-normal season does not eliminate risk. The region’s 3,190 miles of tidal coastline, low-lying areas and dependence on the Chesapeake Bay make it vulnerable to storm surge, flooding, high winds and prolonged power outages even from storms that stay offshore or make landfall farther south.
Recent multi-state exercises conducted by the Maryland Department of Emergency Management (MDEM) in Ocean City on May 27 tested Delmarva-wide evacuation coordination in a simulated Category 3 hurricane scenario. Officials from Delaware, Virginia and local governments across the peninsula, including Southern Maryland, participated to identify planning gaps ahead of the season.
“Interagency planning and exercises like the Delmarva Regional Evacuation Coordination effort are foundational work of emergency management,” said MDEM Secretary Russell Strickland. Similar functional exercises are planned for later in June.
Southern Maryland’s emergency managers in Calvert, Charles and St. Mary’s counties urge residents to use the quieter forecast as an opportunity to prepare rather than relax. Key steps include:
- Installing the MdReady WebApp for instant emergency notifications and local alerts.
- Reviewing evacuation routes, especially along U.S. 301, Maryland Route 235 and Bay Bridge crossings, which can become congested.
- Assembling or updating emergency supply kits with water, non-perishable food, medications, flashlights, batteries and a battery-powered radio.
- Knowing the locations of local cooling and sheltering sites in case of prolonged power outages.
- Securing boats, outdoor furniture and loose items that could become projectiles in high winds.
Historically, Southern Maryland has felt significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms, even when direct landfalls are rare. Hurricane Isabel in 2003 caused widespread flooding and power outages across the region. Tropical Storm Sandy in 2012 and other systems have also brought damaging winds, surge and heavy rain to the Patuxent and Potomac rivers and Chesapeake Bay tributaries.
The Western Charles County Technology Corridor and coastal areas in Calvert and St. Mary’s counties are particularly sensitive to storm surge and flooding. Local officials continue to emphasize that it only takes one storm to create a major emergency.
MDEM and county emergency services departments recommend signing up for local text alerts and monitoring forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. Residents in flood-prone or low-lying neighborhoods should have plans for potential evacuation or sheltering in place.
Even with a below-normal outlook, the message from local leaders is clear: preparation remains essential. Southern Maryland’s unique geography means that a single tropical system can disrupt daily life, damage homes and strain infrastructure.
For the latest forecasts and preparedness resources, Southern Maryland residents can visit the Maryland Department of Emergency Management website or their county emergency services pages. The MdReady WebApp provides one-stop access to alerts and information tailored to Calvert, Charles and St. Mary’s counties.
The 2026 hurricane season is just beginning. While forecasts point to reduced activity, Southern Maryland communities are taking the opportunity to strengthen readiness so they can respond effectively if a storm does threaten the Chesapeake Bay region.
