ANNAPOLIS — Democratic Gov. Wes Moore leads Republican former state Del. Dan Cox 51% to 24%, according to the latest poll released by the University of Maryland, Baltimore County Institute of Politics this week.
The poll also found that 53% of likely voters oppose Question 3, a ballot measure that would loosen limits on how the state draws congressional districts, and that more than three-quarters oppose new data centers being built in Maryland.
The remaining respondents in the governor’s race were split among the Green Party candidate (3%), the Working Class Party candidate (3%) and other candidates (5%), with 14% undecided.
The UMBC Poll surveyed 776 likely Maryland voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the sample.
The race between Moore and Cox is a rematch of the 2022 gubernatorial race, in which Moore defeated Cox, winning the state by more than 30 percentage points. A Goucher College poll at about the same point in 2022 showed Moore with a similar share of support, 53%, but Cox ahead of where he is now, at 31%.
The UMBC poll found 36% of respondents viewed Moore’s politics as moderate and 30% as progressive. According to the poll, 31% of respondents viewed Cox’s politics as very conservative, and another 29% viewed his politics as conservative.
Voters wary of redistricting amendment, poll shows
Maryland voters will decide Question 3 in November. Question 3 asks whether the state will be allowed to rewrite redistricting laws via a constitutional amendment, allowing for boundaries to be redrawn that ignore geographic barriers.
Supporters, including Moore and state Democrats, say the measure would let Maryland answer mid-decade redistricting in Republican-led states such as Texas. A redrawn map could target the 1st District, held by Rep. Andy Harris, the state’s only Republican member of Congress.
The UMBC Poll indicates that this measure could be unpopular with Maryland voters.
Poll respondents were asked whether they would vote “for” Question 3, meaning that going forward, state redistricting requirements would no longer apply to congressional maps, or “against” Question 3, which would keep those redistricting constraints in place.
Opposition crossed party lines. 25% of the voters polled said they would vote for Question 3, compared with 53% who said they were against the measure.
Republican respondents were overwhelmingly against Question 3, 75% said they would vote against it. Democratic respondents were also against the redistricting effort, with 42% of Democrats saying they would vote against the question, and only 35% for it. Unaffiliated voters were also against the plan, with 59% of them saying they would vote against Question 3 compared to 17% who said they would vote for the question.
Michael Hanmer, a professor of government and politics and director of the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement at the University of Maryland, said he was not surprised that respondents were against Question 3.
“The margin surprises me, but the direction doesn’t at all,” Hanmer said.
Hanmer told Capital News Service that measures like Question 3 are difficult for voters, and that many Democrats in Maryland might struggle with the idea of gerrymandering.
“I think there’s a lot of people who might, in principle, especially in a state like Maryland where it’s so heavily Democratic, might in principle say, ‘I don’t like the idea of gerrymandering. We should have districts that sort of make sense and don’t form weird shapes when we look at them on a map, and span communities that have no other real connection to one another’”’ Hanmer said.
Around 20% of all voters polled, Democratic, Republican or unaffiliated, said they didn’t know how they would vote on Question 3. The UMBC poll said that complicated issues surrounding questions like this can be hard for polls to accurately measure.
Voters sour on data centers
Respondents largely view data centers negatively, the poll found.
Eighty percent of respondents said that data centers would have a mostly negative impact on the cost of electricity and 75% said they would have a mostly negative impact on quality of life for residents living near data centers. Respondents overwhelmingly said they saw data centers as hurting both air quality (60%) and water quality (68%).
The poll asked half of respondents about new data centers in Maryland and the other half about one near their community. Opposition was widespread in both cases: 78% statewide and 77% near home.
Data center demand across the regional power grid has been blamed for rising electricity costs in Maryland, and several counties have paused new data center development amid local opposition.
Are Marylanders excited to vote?
According to the UMBC poll, nearly 80% of likely Maryland voters are very or somewhat excited to vote in the November midterm elections.
Hanmer said the results could indicate a fair amount of enthusiasm, and that he expects there to be a high turn out in the midterm elections.
“I don’t think we’re going to see 80% of registered voters turn out, but we’re going to see, I think, a pretty high turnout,” Hanmer said. “That does suggest that there’s a fair amount of enthusiasm.”
This story was originally published by Capital News Service, cnsmaryland.org. Reprinted without changes.