LEONARDTOWN — Southern Maryland’s defense economy has more jobs that need a security clearance than people qualified to fill them, and the bigger hiring challenge over the next decade will be replacing workers who retire or leave, according to a new regional workforce study.
The study, prepared by Towson University for St. Mary’s, Calvert and Charles counties and the Navy, counted 259 job openings requiring a secret clearance in the third quarter of 2025 and 128 candidates to fill them, a gap of 131.
St. Mary’s County Director of Economic Development Cindy Greb walked the county’s Economic Development Commission through the findings Oct. 21. The final results arrived in mid-September and were presented Oct. 6 at a joint meeting of the St. Mary’s County commissioners and Navy leaders, she said. The full report is part of the commission’s meeting packet.
“We don’t want this to be another study that just sits on the shelves,” Greb said.
High wages, thin bench
The region of roughly 380,000 residents is anchored by Naval Air Station Patuxent River, Naval Surface Warfare Center Indian Head and the Naval Research Laboratory’s Chesapeake Bay Detachment. The study called that an unusually specialized defense economy that competing regions would find hard to copy.
National security employed 12,221 regional workers in the third quarter of 2025, and engineering services employed about 6,200. Average wages in those industries were about $127,000 and $117,000, respectively.
Some of the tightest gaps are in specialized fields. Systems integration had 64 openings and 22 candidates. Mathematics, education, child care and training also showed up among the shortages. The presentation cautioned that a qualifications gap is not the same as a count of unique unfilled jobs.
Replacement, not growth
The study projects engineering services will add 265 net jobs across the region from 2025 to 2035, while national security employment declines by 564. The presentation stressed that the decline is a modeled industry trend, not an announced cut at Pax River or Indian Head.
Even with that decline, the study estimates employers will need to fill 8,882 national security positions over the decade because of retirements and other departures. Early retirements can take years of technical knowledge and leadership out of the workplace, the presentation said, and it called for employer-led succession planning, mentoring, apprenticeships and internships.
The shortage is not limited to engineers. The largest projected occupational gaps include management, computer and math jobs, construction, maintenance and repair, and health care practitioners.
Employers also told researchers that housing and quality of life stand in the way. They pointed to a lack of housing for interns and early-career workers and to limited dining, entertainment, retail and cultural options. The study said advertising open jobs will not solve recruiting if newcomers cannot find a place to live or a community they want to stay in.
Commissioners push back on the numbers
Commission members raised several questions. One member who holds a top secret clearance said the national security wages looked low and that workers can earn about $30,000 more by taking similar jobs closer to Washington. Another member asked whether the figures include federal locality pay. Greb said she would check with Towson.
Others questioned the projected decline in defense jobs, noting that several large programs are expected to arrive at Pax River in the next one to four years. Greb said most of the study’s work was done in the spring, possibly before some of those announcements, and said she would ask Towson where the projection came from.
Members also said housing costs hit the middle of the market hardest, both for young professionals moving in and for longtime residents trying to downsize. One cited a $462,000 median home price in August. Another said younger workers are less drawn to government careers and that clearance requirements will screen many out.
Two members said key skills are not taught locally, including graduate-level systems engineering and logistics. Commission members suggested inviting the College of Southern Maryland to present its new programs, possibly in January.
What happens next
The study sets five priorities: prepare for departures, improve housing and amenities, expand education and opportunity, strengthen partnerships with industry, and diversify the economy while building on defense assets. It points to aerospace, technology transfer, advanced manufacturing, health care, agriculture, aquaculture and tourism as areas to explore, and it names the AeroPark Innovation District, St. Mary’s County Regional Airport and the University System of Maryland at Southern Maryland as natural places for that work in St. Mary’s.
Greb said the counties’ economic development offices and the Navy have met several times since the October briefing. The next step is to agree on a short list of regional priorities, decide who leads each one and set ways to measure progress, with partners such as CSM, St. Mary’s College of Maryland, USMSM and The Patuxent Partnership.
She told the commission she was not presenting a new county funding commitment or asking it to approve a plan.
