ANNAPOLIS — Maryland’s comptroller is warning that a proposed change to how the 2030 census counts people could cost the state, and its counties, federal money for a decade.
Comptroller Brooke E. Lierman submitted formal comments to the U.S. Census Bureau on Nov. 2, the deadline for public input, urging the agency to withdraw its proposed rule, her office said in a release. She argued the proposal would undermine the 14th Amendment, reduce the accuracy of the count and shift costs to state and local governments.
What the bureau proposed
The Census Bureau published the rule Sept. 10, according to the National Association of Counties. It would exclude people who are not U.S. citizens or lawful permanent residents from the count, including holders of student and temporary worker visas, asylum applicants and refugees. The bureau also said it intends to use administrative records, including tax documents, to verify where people live, and would remove questions on race and ethnicity.
The comment period originally ran 30 days. The bureau extended it to Nov. 2 after the counties’ association asked for more time, NACo reported.
Lierman’s objections
Every census since the first one in 1790 has counted noncitizens, Lierman wrote, and the bureau has pointed to no historical practice of leaving lawfully present residents out of the population used to apportion congressional seats.
“The decennial census is the common denominator that federal, state, and local governments across the country use to make public and policy decisions,” Lierman said.
Her comments raised three practical concerns:
- Federal money: Maryland received $49.1 billion in fiscal 2023 through federal programs that use census data. Because the state must balance its budget, any lost federal dollars would have to be replaced with state revenue or cuts to services, she said.
- Tax records: Many residents, including low-wage workers and older adults on fixed incomes, do not file returns, so relying on tax data would add errors. If people fear their tax information will be used to check legal status, filing could drop, cutting state and local revenue.
- Demographic data: Dropping race and ethnicity questions would end a longstanding practice and remove data Maryland uses for redistricting, Voting Rights Act compliance and civil rights monitoring.
Why counties are watching
Census counts drive formula funding that reaches Calvert, Charles and St. Mary’s counties directly, including Community Development Block Grants, Byrne Justice Assistance Grants, crime victim assistance and transportation grants, NACo noted. A lower count would lock in smaller shares of that money until the next census in 2040.
The timing compounds pressure already on local budgets. The Maryland Association of Counties told Charles County commissioners last week that the state faces a roughly $2.5 billion gap for fiscal 2028, as the Chronicle reported in its coverage of that briefing. Lierman’s office did not estimate how much any single county could lose.
The Census Bureau will review public comments before deciding whether to finalize, change or withdraw the rule.
