Away From Home For The Holidays; Road Travel Will Dominate As Gas Prices Fall Below 2021 Prices

 ’Tis the season to travel, and AAA estimates that 112.7 million people will journey 50 miles away from home from December 23 to January 2. That’s an increase of approximately three percent or 3.6 million people over last year, but still down by about five percent compared to pre-pandemic numbers. 2022 is expected to be the third busiest year for holiday travel since AAA began tracking in 2000.

“This year, travel time will be extended due to Christmas Day and New Year’s Day falling on Sundays,” says Ragina C. Ali, Public and Government Affairs Manager for AAA Mid-Atlantic in Maryland and Washington, D.C. “With hybrid work schedules, we are seeing more people take long weekends to travel because they can work remotely at their destination and be more flexible with the days they depart and return.”

Auto Travel and Gas Prices

Nearly 102 million Americans will drive to their holiday destinations. This holiday season will see an additional 2 million people traveling by auto, a two percent increase compared to 2021. Travel by car this year is on par with 2018 but shy of 2019 when 108 million Americans drove out of town for the holidays, the highest year on record.

“Gas prices have been on a roller coaster ride throughout 2022 but have recently settled down to 2021 levels or less, just in time for the holidays,” Ali states. In fact, the national average on Sunday was $3.27, a 14-cent dip from last week and six cents less than year ago prices. 

Maryland’s average also fell to $3.31, 11 cents less than a week ago and a penny less than last year.  Washington, D.C.’s average, while dropping six cents in the past week to $3.61 yesterday remains 15 cents higher than last year. However, D.C metro-area prices have dropped below last year’s prices, with the metro average sitting at $3.33 yesterday, down 11 cents from week-ago prices and penny less than last year. 

“As demand remains low and stocks grow, drivers will likely continue to see pump prices decline through this week.  This is the first time we have seen gas prices lower than the same date the previous year since February, 2021,” Ali adds.

Air Travel and Other Modes

Air travel will see a 14% increase over last year, with nearly 7.2 million Americans expected to fly. Flights and airports will be packed this holiday season, reminiscent of pre-pandemic days. Demand for flights has surged despite higher airline ticket prices. AAA expects the number of people taking holiday flights this year will come close to matching 2019 when 7.3 million Americans traveled by air.

“The TSA reports screening more than 2.5 million people at U.S. airports on the Sunday after Thanksgiving,” adds Ali. “That’s the highest number of travelers screeners have seen since the start of the pandemic and a sure sign that air travel is getting closer to normal.”

Other modes of transportation are also rebounding in a big way. AAA estimates travel by bus, rail, and cruise ship will rise to 3.6 million this holiday season, a 23% increase from last year and nearly 94% of 2019’s volume.

Busiest Corridors and Best/Worst Times to Travel

INRIX, a provider of transportation analytics and insights, expects the most congested days on the road to be the Friday before Christmas, December 23, and December 27 and 28. Monday, January 2, is also expected to be a busy day on the roads as travelers mix with commuters. In major metros, especially in Los Angeles and New York City, drivers could experience double the typical delays. Nationwide, drivers could see travel times up to 25% longer.  

“With pre-pandemic levels of travelers hitting the road this holiday, drivers must be prepared for delays in and around major metro areas, with Tuesday, December 27 expected to be the nation’s worst day to travel,” says Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “Our advice is to avoid traveling during peak commuting hours. If schedules allow, leave bright and early or after the afternoon commute.”

Holiday Forecast Methodology: A Brief Overview

Travel Forecast 

With AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence developed a unique methodology to forecast domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices, stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and S&P Global Market Intelligence have quantified holiday travel volumes from 2000.

Historical travel volume estimates come from DK

SHIFFLET’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/Monitor ^SM. The PERFORMANCE/Monitor ^SM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. DK SHIFFLET contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends and forecast U.S. travel behavior—all after the trips have been taken.  

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and S&P Global Market Intelligence forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared for the week of November 15, 2022.   

Year-End Holiday Travel Period 

For this forecast, the year-end holiday travel period is defined as the 11 days from Friday, December 23 to Monday, January 2. This period is the same length as the 2021/2022 year-end travel period.

The year-end holiday travel period can range from 10 to 13 days, depending on which day of the week Christmas Day and New Year’s Day fall. All the year-end holiday periods contain two weekends.