In a striking turn of events, former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has emerged as the frontrunner in the race for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by retiring Senator Ben Cardin. A recent poll by Ragnar Research Partners reveals Hogan, a Republican, holding a significant lead over top Democratic contender, Congressman David Trone, by a margin of 49% to 33%.
This development comes as Hogan, who had been previously speculated to have presidential ambitions, declared his candidacy for the Senate earlier in the month. The poll, surveying 600 likely voters, indicates a potential shift in the political landscape of Maryland, a state traditionally leaning towards Democratic candidates.

Hogan’s entry into the race injects a dose of momentum into his campaign, positioning him prominently among seven Republican hopefuls vying for the GOP nomination. A victory in the primary would necessitate Hogan’s appeal to a broader spectrum of voters, particularly moderates, to secure a win in a state where Democratic Governor Wes Moore was elected in 2022 with a commanding 64% of the vote.
Amidst his campaign, Hogan has sought to navigate the complex political terrain surrounding social issues, notably taking a stance on the recent Alabama ruling that defines frozen embryos as “human.” This position might reflect Hogan’s strategy to appeal to moderate voters, potentially distancing himself from more conservative elements within his party.
Hogan articulated his views on the matter through a post on X (formerly Twitter), stating, “IVF helps give many Americans the chance to experience the joy of parenthood, and government should never stand in the way of that. The Alabama ruling should be overturned.” This statement underscores Hogan’s attempt to balance his previous policies on abortion with a broader appeal to moderate and independent voters who could be critical in a general election matchup.
The Ragnar Research Partners poll highlights Hogan’s early lead over Trone and underscores the competitive nature of the upcoming Senate race in Maryland. With Senator Cardin’s impending retirement, the contest for his seat is set to be a closely watched battle, reflecting both the state’s and the nation’s shifting political dynamics.
Hogan’s ability to maintain his lead and navigate the complex issues facing voters will be pivotal as the campaign unfolds. The former governor’s appeal to a wide range of constituents and his stance on key issues positions him as a formidable candidate in a state that has historically favored Democrats. The coming months will be crucial for Hogan and his competitors as they vie for the support of Maryland’s electorate in what promises to be a highly competitive race.
