Supply chain software provider project44 released its annual State of Consumer Holiday Shopping Report on October 14, 2025, revealing widespread anxiety among U.S. consumers over potential tariff hikes and their impact on holiday spending. The survey of more than 2,000 consumers across North America and the United Kingdom shows shoppers bracing for higher prices by delaying purchases, capping budgets and prioritizing deals, even as they demand flawless delivery experiences from retailers.
The report, which examines preparations for the November-December shopping period, identifies tariffs as the dominant concern, with 80 percent of respondents expressing worry that new duties on imports will drive up costs for gifts and essentials. In response, 70 percent said they would buy fewer items if prices rise, contributing to a broader trend of restrained spending. An additional 40 percent have already set a firm holiday budget ceiling of $500 or less, while 82 percent plan to opt for cheaper alternatives or substitutions for planned gifts.
These shifts reflect a “wait-and-see” mindset amid economic uncertainty, as only 25 percent of consumers started shopping before October, down from 35 percent the previous year. Instead, a majority intend to hold off until midseason sales events like Black Friday on November 28 and Cyber Monday on December 1, monitoring for discounts to stretch limited funds. Jenna Slagle, senior data analyst at project44, described the environment as one that “really prioritizes price over anything else,” noting that shoppers are showing flexibility by targeting promotions and even considering experiential gifts like dining out over traditional merchandise.
Online platforms continue to capture the bulk of spending, with more than half of holiday allocations directed toward digital channels and 80 percent of consumers planning to shop via marketplaces such as Amazon or Walmart’s online stores. This dominance persists despite reluctance to pay premiums for expedited service: 56 percent indicated they would not cover extra fees for faster shipping, underscoring a preference for standard options that balance cost and convenience. Delivery reliability, however, remains non-negotiable, as 45 percent vowed not to patronize retailers that fail to meet promised timelines, a threshold that could strain logistics providers during peak volume.
Sustainability, once a rising factor in purchasing decisions, appears to be fading under budget pressures. Exactly 34 percent of respondents said environmental considerations matter only if they do not increase expenses, and another 34 percent reported that such attributes have no bearing on their choices at all. This marks a departure from prior years, where eco-friendly packaging or carbon-neutral shipping often influenced selections, and highlights how immediate financial realities are overriding long-term values.
The findings carry direct implications for the supply chain sector, which anticipates softer freight volumes this season compared to historical peaks. Trucking firms, in particular, face a more frugal consumer base, with delayed shopping likely compressing shipments into a narrower window and amplifying risks from capacity constraints. The Logistics Managers’ Index stood at 57.4 in September 2025, its lowest reading since March and signaling decelerating growth in transportation pricing, activity and utilization—trends that deviate from the usual pre-holiday surge in merchandise imports. David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, forecasted a “muted” fourth quarter but cautioned about potential disruptions from tariffs and seasonal factors like Roadcheck Week in May 2026, which could reignite inflationary pressures in truckload rates.
project44’s report arrives amid broader retail forecasts painting a cautious picture for the holidays. Adobe Analytics projects online sales to reach $253.4 billion from November 1 to December 31, a 5.3 percent increase from 2024 but below inflation-adjusted growth rates of past cycles. PwC’s Holiday Outlook survey similarly predicts a 5 percent average decline in seasonal spending per household, the first such drop since 2020. Deloitte’s parallel poll found 77 percent of shoppers expecting elevated prices on holiday goods, with 57 percent anticipating a softer economy in 2026.
For retailers and brands, the data underscores the need for precision in operations. “Retailers and brands might get fewer chances this season to win over new customers and strengthen loyalty,” said Brian Cooper, chief marketing officer at project44. “So, when those moments come, every experience has to hit the mark. There’s just no room for missteps.” Shippers are advised to enhance visibility and agility in their networks, leveraging tools like real-time tracking to preempt delays and align with consumer demands for transparency.
This year’s report builds on project44’s ongoing series, which began tracking holiday trends in 2020 to help logistics executives adapt to disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic. Earlier editions highlighted accelerations in e-commerce and contactless delivery, but the 2025 edition pivots to resilience amid geopolitical trade tensions. Tariffs, proposed on goods from China and other trading partners, could add 10 to 60 percent to import costs for categories like electronics and apparel, which account for roughly 40 percent of holiday sales volume. Economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimate that full implementation might shave 0.5 percentage points off U.S. GDP growth in 2026, with ripple effects on consumer confidence already evident in the survey responses.
Consumers, meanwhile, are recalibrating traditions to fit realities. The emphasis on substitutions—such as selecting store brands over nameplates or digital gifts over physical ones—echoes behaviors from the 2008 recession, when holiday retail sales fell 2.2 percent. Yet, underlying demand persists: Slagle noted that “everyone still needs their decorations, they need their food, they need their presents,” forecasting a volume spike in truckload and last-mile segments despite the tempered pace. Retailers preparing for this include bolstering inventory buffers and partnering with third-party logistics firms to mitigate tariff-induced shortages.
As the season approaches, the report serves as a benchmark for stakeholders navigating volatility. project44, which processes data from over 1.5 million shipment events daily, positions the analysis as actionable intelligence for optimizing routes and forecasting demand. With Black Friday two weeks away as of the report’s release, early indicators suggest imports have pulled forward earlier in 2025 to dodge duties, contributing to current market softness but setting the stage for a compressed rush.
