Matthew Breece, assistant professor of marine science at St. Mary’s College of Maryland, has received a subaward exceeding $500,000 over three years from NASA’s Biodiversity and Ecological Conservation program. The funding supports expansion of the Atlantic Sturgeon Occurrence Model, a predictive tool originally developed in Delaware to forecast locations of the endangered Atlantic sturgeon in rivers and coastal waters.
The model uses daily data on factors such as water depth, temperature, and satellite-derived sea surface temperature to generate real-time predictions. Users, including commercial watermen and recreational boaters, can access these forecasts to anticipate sturgeon presence, similar to how meteorologists predict weather patterns. This approach aims to minimize accidental interactions that threaten the species.
Breece explained that the tool enables coastal water users to adjust activities and reduce encounters with sturgeon. The new funding will broaden the model’s geographic coverage by incorporating tracking data from collaborators in Delaware, New York, and South Carolina. Integration of additional satellite observations will enhance accuracy across a larger area of the Mid-Atlantic region.
Atlantic sturgeon, an anadromous fish that migrates from ocean waters to rivers for spawning, face multiple threats identified by NOAA Fisheries. These include bycatch in fishing gear, vessel strikes, habitat degradation from pollution and development, and barriers like dams that block access to spawning grounds. Distinct population segments along the U.S. East Coast are listed as endangered or threatened under the Endangered Species Act.
In Maryland, the Chesapeake Bay population holds particular significance. The bay and its tributaries, including the Potomac, Nanticoke, and Marshyhope Creek, once supported abundant sturgeon runs that contributed to early colonial economies through caviar and meat harvests. Historical records indicate peak landings in the late 19th century, but overfishing and habitat loss led to sharp declines by the early 20th century.
Maryland closed its sturgeon fishery in 1996, and the federal government listed the Chesapeake Bay distinct population segment as endangered in 2012. Critical habitat designations include sections of several Maryland rivers, recognizing their role in supporting spawning and juvenile rearing. Recent efforts by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources involve tagging and tracking sturgeon to monitor movements and identify remaining spawning sites, such as in the Nanticoke River system.
The species’ prehistoric lineage dates back millions of years, with adults capable of reaching lengths over 8 feet and weights exceeding 200 pounds. Recovery depends on reducing human impacts in coastal and estuarine zones where sturgeon aggregate during migrations. Tools like the occurrence model provide practical applications by combining acoustic telemetry data— from tagged fish detected by underwater receivers—with remote sensing to map high-probability areas.
Expansion of the model aligns with broader conservation strategies under the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission and NOAA. These emphasize bycatch reduction in commercial fisheries and vessel strike avoidance in busy shipping channels. In Southern Maryland, where the Patuxent and Potomac rivers meet the Chesapeake Bay, local watermen and boaters navigate waters that overlap with sturgeon migration corridors.
Predictive models offer a proactive method for coexistence, allowing users to shift operations to lower-risk zones based on environmental conditions. Satellite data on sea surface temperature and ocean color help identify preferred habitats, such as cooler depths during warmer months or areas with specific turbidity levels.
Ongoing research tracks contributions from various river populations to coastal aggregations, revealing mixed origins in Mid-Atlantic waters. This underscores the need for region-wide tools to protect the species during non-spawning phases when sturgeon are most vulnerable to vessel strikes and gear entanglement.
The NASA-funded project builds on earlier work in Delaware Bay, where initial versions achieved high prediction accuracy using similar data integration. Extending coverage to include South Carolina data will capture southern migration patterns, benefiting conservation across the species’ range.
For Southern Maryland residents familiar with the Chesapeake Bay’s tidal rivers and commercial fishing heritage, the model’s growth represents progress in balancing ecosystem protection with water-based livelihoods. Access to real-time forecasts could inform decisions for crabbers, anglers, and ferry operators in areas like St. Mary’s County and Calvert County waters.
