Artificial intelligence may dominate headlines about workplace change, but a new report from a University of Maryland professor concludes AI has not been as disruptive to the job market as many have perceived.
Anil Gupta, professor of strategy at the Smith School of Business, analyzed labor market data and found no evidence of an economy-wide shift in hiring caused by AI. While some large companies have announced layoffs, those moves have not translated into broader job losses.
Gupta noted that entry-level jobs now account for 6 percent of total job postings — the highest share in the past eight years when the pandemic period is excluded.
“Actually, the share of job postings targeted at fresh graduates has been increasing over the years,” Gupta reported. “It’s been increasing in the whole economy. It’s increasing across sectors. It’s increasing even in the mathematical and computer occupations.”
Even software engineering, often cited as one of the fields most vulnerable to AI, continues to show a robust entry-level job market.
Gupta attributed much of the recent decline in overall postings to a return to normalcy after the pandemic hiring boom. Massive fiscal stimulus and the reopening of the economy led to widespread overhiring. Companies are now normalizing staffing levels, but total job postings remain well above pre-pandemic figures.
“After the pandemic, we had the opening up. We also had the massive fiscal stimulus, so there was an explosion in hiring,” Gupta said. “When companies essentially overhired, now we have been seeing a process of normalization.”
The report suggests “tribal narratives” have fueled public perception of widespread AI-driven job displacement. These popular but unsubstantiated stories persist despite limited empirical evidence of broad labor market disruption.
For Southern Maryland residents, the findings offer reassurance. The region’s economy relies heavily on defense-related work at Naval Air Station Patuxent River, health care, education, construction and tourism — sectors where human skills and local knowledge remain essential. Employers in Calvert, Charles and St. Mary’s counties continue to seek entry-level talent in these fields even as AI tools become more common in some office roles.
The ADP National Employment Report, produced in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, supports Gupta’s analysis. It shows private employers added 109,000 jobs nationally in April, with health care and trade, transportation and utilities leading gains. Pay for job-stayers rose 4.4 percent year-over-year.
Local leaders note that Southern Maryland’s mix of federal, contractor and small-business jobs has helped insulate the region from some national trends. The steady demand for skilled workers in engineering, nursing, teaching and trades provides opportunities for recent graduates and career changers.
Gupta’s research emphasizes the importance of looking at actual labor market data rather than relying on anecdotal headlines. While AI will continue to change how some jobs are performed, the overall demand for workers has remained resilient.
The full report is available through the Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland.
