Candidates for the Maryland General Assembly have all kinds of ideas for the state’s future, but one thing could stand in the way of any grand plans: the looming — and widening — state budget shortfalls.
The state’s fiscal troubles emerged in 2024, when its deficit stretched to $3 billion after the expiration of federal aid stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic. The budget deficits for future years, however, result largely from the state’s ambitious yet underfunded education reform plan, the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future.
For the coming fiscal year, the General Assembly closed a $1.5 billion budget gap thanks to cuts without new taxes.
But projections show the worst is yet to come for the Maryland state budget. Gov. Wes Moore’s office projects a deficit of $2.8 billion in fiscal year 2028, growing to $4.5 billion in fiscal year 2031.
The state’s fiscal problems are on the mind of General Assembly candidates whose thoughts are included in the Local News Network’s General Assembly voter guide, too. The issue splits the candidates across partisan and ideological lines, with Democrats pushing for new taxes and Republicans favoring spending cuts — including to the Blueprint.
But lawmakers from both parties will find themselves facing a hard truth. Del. Ryan Spiegel, D-Montgomery County, who is running for reelection in the state’s 17th district, spelled it out in his response to a Local News Network questionnaire sent to all the candidates in the June 23 General Assembly primaries.
“Budgeting is extremely difficult because it requires making hard choices among many good causes,” Spiegel said.
Taxes
On the issue of taxes, the division between candidates is largely between Republicans who oppose tax increases and Democrats who want to institute additional levies on corporations and the state’s wealthiest residents.
In heavily Democratic Maryland, many candidates favor such taxes over cuts to services.
“We cannot take money from education. I also am concerned about the proposal to take money from disability groups,” said Matt Menter, a Democratic candidate for delegate in Baltimore City’s District 41. “I do not know why we are taking actions that would hurt our most vulnerable people. [Those] to me, [are] short-term fixes that will only bring about long-term pain.”
“I would rather see a millionaire’s/billionaire’s tax,” Menter added.
Andrew Duck, a Democrat running for District 4 delegate in Frederick County, has a similar mindset.
“I support a state Alternative Minimum Tax to limit the amount of income that can be avoided with tax loopholes, to prevent millionaires from getting away with paying nothing in taxes, while working people are forced to pay the costs of needed public services,” Duck said.
Craig Hayes, a candidate for District 22 delegate in Prince George’s County, offered myriad alternative policies similar to Duck’s to ensure “everyone is paying their fair share — including the ultrawealthy and corporations.”
Hayes, a Democrat and Hyattsville resident, proposed closing loopholes for corporations, raising existing taxes and imposing new ones on the wealthiest residents, and giving more resources to the Comptroller’s Office so it could crack down on tax fraud and underreporting.
Those candidates and others hope progressive tax reforms not only help reduce the deficit but also carry enough of the state’s burden to reduce fees and taxes on lower-income residents.
Republicans, however, argue raising taxes would be counterproductive. Republican Edward E. Clemons Jr. wants to reduce those fees without raising taxes.
“Taxing never encourages growth,” said Clemons, who is running for District 1A delegate in Allegany and Garrett counties.
Steve Whisler — a Republican running for delegate in District 5, covering parts of Carroll and Frederick counties — agreed.
“I do not support Gov. Wes Moore’s ‘mixed’ approach [to closing the deficit], which ultimately relies on higher taxes to cover up systemic fiscal mismanagement,” Whisler said. “Taxing ‘the wealthy’ may sound politically convenient, but in reality, it drives businesses, job creators and retirees out of our state — shrinking the tax base and making the problem worse.”
Many candidates, however, favored a balanced approach that would pair tax changes with greater scrutiny of state spending.
“There is no one silver bullet,” said Del. Courtney Watson, D-Howard County, who is running for reelection in District 9B. “I support mixed solutions as the only way to thoughtfully balance the impact of these decisions.”
An expensive ‘Blueprint’
As incoming legislators confront years of projected state deficits, they’ll also face another daunting fact: education spending is the deficit’s main driver.
State figures show the cost of the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future will exceed the state’s deficit in every fiscal year from 2028 through 2031.
That being the case, Republicans such as Dan Katz, who is contending for a delegate seat in Baltimore County, blame the state’s signature education reform plan for its fiscal woes.
“The biggest contributor to the current situation is the Maryland Blueprint for Education,” Katz said. “While well-intentioned, it is the epitome of irresponsible legislation that committed $4 billion of state and county funds over a 10-year period without any assurances that the money would be available. It is an unfunded mandate that has crippled the government.”
Democrats, however, strongly oppose big reductions in spending on the Blueprint.
Del. Greg Wims, D-Montgomery, predicted a decline in the state’s quality of life if funding decreases for either education or healthcare.
“Deep spending cuts mean teacher aides who get laid off, seniors who lose home care services and families in vulnerable communities who depend on programs without lifelines,” said Wims, who is running for re-election in District 39..
Democratic House of Delegates candidate Evan Smith said the state shouldn’t damage its education infrastructure for a short-term deficit fix.
“The cost of sacrificing the quality of the next generation’s education is not merely a monetary one,” said Smith, who is running in Charles County’s District 28. “Teachers and educators already have trouble making ends meet. Children still are being left behind and falling through the cracks.”
Amid such concerns, Democrats who responded to the LNN questionnaire tended to favor a detailed review of state spending over wholesale cuts to education.
J.W. Abney, a Democratic candidate for District 29C in Calvert and St. Mary’s counties, wanted greater financial accountability across the entire state budget.
“Housing costs, energy bills and inflation have already squeezed household budgets. It risks accelerating the outmigration we are already seeing,” Abney said. “A serious approach to the deficit means a line-by-line review of state expenditures, not a negotiation that starts with cuts as the concession and taxes as the goal.”
Democrat Rocio Treminio-Lopez is running for a House of Delegates seat in Prince George’s County’s District 47A. She balanced concern about cuts with the risk of driving away residents who contribute to the tax base.
Residents are already leaving. The Comptroller’s Office reported in October that Maryland is “in the top 10 of all U.S. states for the largest net loss of residents” between 2022 and 2024.
“Simply cutting deeply across the board can harm the very services that communities rely on,” Treminio-Lopez said. “Any revenue measures must be carefully designed so they do not drive families or businesses out of the state.”
Different Ideas
Amid all the discussion of taxes and spending, some candidates said the state should seek alternative revenue sources.
State Sen. Ron Watson, D-Prince George’s County, pushed for adding new industries to stimulate the state economy. He highlighted online gambling as an untapped market he said could bring in $1.5 billion over five years.
“The state needs to look at our digital economy,” Watson, who is running for re-election in District 23, wrote in his questionnaire. “We MUST think outside of the box!”
Online gambling generated billions for states in 2025. Pennsylvania reported over $2.7 billion in revenue from the industry. Maryland’s current gambling options produced just over $1.5 billion last year.
Watson also suggested adding a Maryland stablecoin, which backs a cryptocurrency with a reserve, to the state’s new investments. Wyoming is the only state to currently have a coin, putting $6 million toward the idea. Maryland would exclusively issue the coin and profit from collecting interest on it.
Stanford Fraser, a Democratic candidate for District 24 delegate who works as an assistant public defender in Prince George’s County, offered another revenue-raising alternative.
“We can increase revenue by passing legislation to allow beer and wine sales in grocery stores, which is calculated to bring in an extra $75 million in tax revenue without a tax increase,” Fraser said. Beer and wine sales have been prohibited in most Maryland grocery stores for decades.
A study on the issue offered far lower revenue estimates. The Jacob France Institute at the University of Baltimore projected between $4.7 and $6.6 million in added tax revenue, relying on estimates of the boost in alcohol sales for that range.
But candidates are suggesting alternative forms of revenue because they understand the state’s fiscal difficulties.
“Yesterday’s answers will not solve today’s fiscal realities,” said Adrian Muldrow, a Democratic House of Delegates candidate for District 41 in Baltimore.