Super Bowl LVII will be the first meeting of the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles in an NFL championship game. The game will be a first for perhaps a much more significant reason, too. The latest Super Bowl betting projection forecasts Super Bowl LVII to break a lofty US gambling record.
Legal sportsbooks across the United States could take in over $1.1 billion in wagers on the contest between the Chiefs and the Eagles on Feb. 12. If bets do reach that amount, it will make Super Bowl LVII not only the most bet-upon Super Bowl ever but put it atop all sporting events in US history as well.
Super Bowl betting projection sets lofty goal for 2023
With legal sportsbooks in 33 states plus Washington, DC taking part in this year’s action, the stage is set for the most active year for Super Bowl betting ever. New to the festivities for 2023 are:
Additionally, this will be the first Super Bowl with legal online sports betting in Maryland. Last year’s game came when only physical sportsbooks were operating in that state. New access is a big part of the reason Super Bowl LVII should eclipse 2022’s total of $947 million in bets.
“The 2023 Super Bowl could draw more bets than any other game in the history of US sports, easily surpassing 2022’s total with the addition of a few major markets to the equation,” said Catena Media Lead Analyst Eric Ramsey. “Ohio, in particular, is poised to make a significant contribution with a top-five performance in its first 45 days of legal operations. Nevada meanwhile figures to enjoy at least one more year atop the Super Bowl betting throne with nearly 10 times the average per-capita volume for this specific event.”
The projections predict that the top five sports betting states should do most of the heavy lifting for 2023. Combined, they could bring in more than $621.9 million in bets. That’s around 56.5% of the whole, leaving the other 29 markets to split the remaining 43.5%.
As Ramsay alluded to, Nevada could keep its top spot for 2023. Tradition and sizable wagers are on the Silver State’s side.
Nevada keeps the whales afloat for 2023
If you have money to burn on Super Bowl bets, where’s the ideal place to set it aflame? For decades, that’s been Nevada. The power of bettors’ habits and the tradition of spending Super Bowl Sunday at a Las Vegas casino continue to work in Nevada’s favor for 2023.
Current projections predict Nevada could see $176.2 million in Super Bowl bets this year. While that might keep Nevada in the number one slot for US states with legal sports betting, it’s also a sign that Nevada’s destination power could be waning.
In 2022, bettors plunked down $179.8 million in bets on Super Bowl LVI. Thus, this year’s projection would represent a decline of about 2.1% if it proves accurate. Nevada might be able to reverse that trend someday if it improves upon its online sports betting product.
However, Vegas casinos are still the main attraction in Nevada. As long as Nevada maintains its top spot for Super Bowl betting, there might not be much motivation to change anything. The second market on the list still has some room to grow to form a serious challenge, too.
New York’s growing prominence
In 2022, New York claimed the No. 2 spot in terms of Super Bowl bets due to the introduction of legal online sportsbooks in the state. New York could not only hold onto that spot for 2023 but also close the gap between Nevada and itself, too.
Projections have New York sports betting improving on its $150 million in Super Bowl bets in 2022 to reach over $161.6 million this year. If that prediction is accurate, that will be less than $15 million shy of the projection for Nevada.
Why the projected jump? A year of familiarity with New York online sportsbooks could make people who have been crossing the border into New Jersey more comfortable with staying home this year. Additionally, New York should get some matchup benefit as well.
Philadelphia is a mere 90 miles or $20 train ticket from New York City. The Eagles’ presence in the game could make some people who live in the downstate region more apt to place a few bucks on the game, whether against or for Philly.
Don’t discount the impact of New York Giants fans who are hoping to see the Eagles crash and burn. The same factor could apply to the next state on the list, too.
New Jersey holds onto third in 2023
New Jersey was No. 2 from 2019 through 2021 until New York supplanted it. In 2023, that gap could grow even larger in New York’s favor.
“Unfortunately for New Jersey’s local betting industry, expansion in New York means that the biggest Super Bowls might very well be behind us,” Ramsey stated. “We expect to see volume drop right back down to its 2021 levels this year, putting New Jersey on the podium ahead of rising competition from Illinois and brand-new Ohio.”
In 2021, bettors wagered $117.4 million at Atlantic City casinos and on New Jersey sports betting apps. For 2023, the Super Bowl betting total could sit around $115.5 million. If so, that would be a decrease of around 19.7% from 2022’s $143.7 million.
However, New Jersey sportsbooks should still enjoy a significant lead on any of the other 30 states besides Nevada and New York. Projections do not have any of those markets reaching $100 million in Super Bowl bets this year.
Super Bowl LVII should still represent a new record for Illinois, though.
Sportsbook joy in Illinois
The Chicago metro could continue to flex its muscle in terms of sports betting prowess in 2023. While the local Bears didn’t sniff the playoffs this season, the temperatures limit activities in early February. There’s little to do but bet on and then watch the game.
This year’s projection represents a near doubling of the action for Illinois’ first Super Bowl with legal sportsbooks in 2021. If predictions pan out, Illinoisans will wager more than $86.1 million on Super Bowl LVII. Super Bowl LV drew $45.6 million in bets.
The superb growth is mostly due to the rescinding of the in-person registration requirement for online betting that was in place in 2021. With that gone and the market moving toward maturity, Illinois sports betting could be the next market to reach nine figures in wagers on Super Bowl Sunday.
The same could be said for the fifth state. In fact, had things panned out differently on the field, that market could be flirting with $100 million in bets this year.
O-H-I-Oh what a start
Sports betting in Ohio has only been legal for less than a month. But that launch couldn’t have come at a better time.
“No legal US sports betting market has as many unknowns surrounding the Super Bowl as Ohio does,” Ramsay commented. “The Bengals’ loss in the AFC Championship game certainly tamps down our expectations a bit, but we still expect to see Ohio sneak into the top five states for sports betting handle – barely a month removed from launch.”
As Ramsey said, if Cincinnati had won the AFC Championship, this projection could have been a good deal higher. As it sits, the projection has Ohio Super Bowl bets worth $82.5 million in 2023. Again, though, as Ramsey stated, there are several unknown quantities.
It’s simply difficult to predict how a market that is so young will behave. Will sportsbooks roll out attractive offers so quickly after doing so for their launches? Will any of the businesses who applied to host lottery kiosks have them installed in time for the game?
For certain, though, surpassing $82 million in bets for the first eligible Super Bowl would be a great start for Ohio sportsbooks. Instead of addressing the matchup that could have been, a look at the places where the two Super Bowl teams hail from is worth some time.
What about the Chiefs’ and Eagles’ home markets?
To be clear, the Chiefs play their home games in Missouri, not Kansas, as the name might suggest. For those unaware, there is also a Kansas City, Missouri, which is right across the state line from Kansas City, Kansas.
Regardless, sports betting remains illegal in Missouri. Thus, many Kansas City, Missouri residents will probably make the short trip across the border to place legal bets in Kansas. This will be the first year with legal sportsbooks in Kansas for the Super Bowl.
Projections have Super Bowl wagers in Kansas this year worth over $17.6 million. That ranks Kansas in the middle of the pack at No. 17. Pennsylvania has a much more mature market. In fact, it might still be a top-five state this year.
“Pennsylvania has become a reliable workhorse for the US sports betting industry, seemingly unphased by launches in neighboring states and the effects of fatigue that are appearing in some mature markets,” Ramsey added. “It’s hard to quantify the impact of the Eagles’ participation as it relates to volume, but it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see local operators blow this forecast out of the water.”
As the projection stands right now, Pennsylvania comes in sixth at $65 million for 2023. MVP bets on quarterback Jalen Hurts and live wagering during the game if the Eagles are performing well might change that for Pennsylvania sportsbooks. On the other hand, there could be somewhat of a home field disadvantage for Pennsylvania this year.
Where does Arizona rank this year?
Super Bowl LVII will be the first Super Bowl played in a venue where a physical sportsbook is literally a few steps away. There is a BetMGM Sportsbook right across the parking lot from State Farm Stadium, where the Chiefs and Eagles will decide the fate of the Lombardi Trophy on Feb. 12.
Additionally, online Arizona sports betting is legal. That’s helping Arizona fall in seventh place in the 2023 projections, sitting at $63.1 million. Where the actual numbers land will start to quantify the value of hosting the Super Bowl to a state’s legal sportsbooks.
Next year will provide more data as Las Vegas will host Super Bowl LVIII. For Kansas and Pennsylvania, the opposite effect could be visible. There could be some bets placed in Arizona this year that might have otherwise been put down in those states due to fans traveling for the game.
Regardless of the location or matchup, the Super Bowl each year proves to be the single biggest sports betting day of the year in the United States. Super Bowl LVII should again set a high bar for future games to try to clear.