Maryland’s Department of Natural Resources (DNR), in a pioneering initiative with George Mason University and The Nature Conservancy, has unveiled an advanced mapping project aimed at combating the challenges posed by sea level rise. This collaborative effort has resulted in a predictive tool that delineates future flood zones and potential wetland areas, guiding conservation and protective measures for the state’s coastal regions.

The project’s core achievement is an updated model that forecasts the transformation of coastal landscapes due to rising sea levels, identifying areas that could be submerged or newly emerge as wetlands. This critical data is instrumental for land managers and conservationists, enabling proactive strategies to safeguard wildlife habitats and bolster coastal defenses against storm surges and flooding.

Wetlands in Jug Bay in Lothian. DNR photo

Sara Coleman, a conservation resilience planner with DNR, emphasized the utility of the new data in enhancing land acquisition and conservation efforts. “With these greater insights into the future effects of sea level rise, land managers can proactively identify areas that will be key for wildlife conservation while protecting coastal communities from storm impacts and nuisance flooding,” Coleman remarked. This initiative is particularly vital for Maryland’s lower Eastern Shore, anticipated to bear the brunt of sea level rise impacts.

Accessible through the Maryland Coastal Atlas on the DNR website, the public and officials can explore the “Wetland Adaptation to Sea Level Rise” layers. These layers offer a comprehensive view of how wetlands are expected to adapt, providing a valuable resource for planning and conservation.

Wetlands are renowned for their ecological benefits, including water purification, habitat provision, and flood protection. The project underscores the necessity of preserving land corridors to enable marsh migration, a sentiment echoed by Bob Allen, Climate and Ecosystem Resiliency Director for The Nature Conservancy’s Maryland/District of Columbia Chapter. Allen highlighted the project’s role in guiding conservation strategies, ensuring that today’s efforts will endure through future challenges.

Funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the initiative applies sophisticated models and field observations to evaluate coastal habitats’ current and future benefits. It extends the capabilities of the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM), offering predictions under various sea level rise scenarios, from 2 to 6.5 feet by the year 2100.

Results of the updated SLAMM in Dorchester County, an area particularly prone to flooding and rising sea levels. By 2100, over 26,000 acres of upland to wetland conversion are projected. Credit: Zimmermann, Joseph

The project’s outputs, including data layers visualizing the state of coastal areas in 2050, 2070, and 2100, serve as a blueprint for conservation action. These layers prioritize areas for conservation based on several criteria, including soil type, anticipated wetland presence, and ecological significance.

Nicole Carlozo, DNR’s section chief for waterfront and resource planning, stressed the importance of visualizing future habitat conditions as a preliminary step in climate change preparation. “The Maryland Department of Natural Resources is excited to contribute to that picture with an update to the state’s Wetland Adaptation Areas,” Carlozo stated.

Maryland’s innovative approach to coastal management marks a significant advancement in the state’s resilience against climate change. By forecasting and preparing for the ecological shifts induced by sea level rise, Maryland sets a precedent for conservation and climate adaptation efforts nationwide.


David M. Higgins II is an award-winning journalist passionate about uncovering the truth and telling compelling stories. Born in Baltimore and raised in Southern Maryland, he has lived in several East...

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