The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined by 5.4 points in June to 93.0 (1985=100), down from 98.4 in May, erasing nearly half of May’s gains. The Present Situation Index, reflecting consumers’ views on current business and labor market conditions, dropped 6.4 points to 129.1. The Expectations Index, based on short-term outlooks for income, business, and labor conditions, fell 4.6 points to 69.0, well below the 80 threshold signaling a potential recession. Preliminary results were finalized on June 18, 2025, according to The Conference Board.
Broad Decline in Consumer Confidence
“Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration.” The drop affected all age groups, most income levels, and political affiliations, with Republicans showing the largest decline in consumer confidence.
Consumers reported less optimism about current business conditions, with 19.0% rating them “good” (down from 21.4%) and 15.3% rating them “bad” (up from 13.7%). Views on job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month, though 29.2% still said jobs were “plentiful” (down from 31.1%), and 18.1% said jobs were “hard to get” (down from 18.4%).
Future Expectations and Economic Concerns
The Expectations Index revealed growing pessimism. Only 16.7% expected business conditions to improve (down from 19.9%), while 24.0% anticipated worsening conditions (down from 25.4%). For the labor market, 15.4% expected more jobs (down from 18.6%), and 25.9% foresaw fewer jobs (down from 26.2%). Income optimism also dipped, with 16.3% expecting increases (down from 18.6%) and 12.4% expecting decreases (down from 13.5%).
“Consumers’ write-in responses revealed little change since May in the top issues impacting their views of the economy,” Guichard noted. “Tariffs remained on top of consumers’ minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices.” Inflation and high prices persisted as key concerns, though mentions of easing inflation rose, aligning with a drop in 12-month inflation expectations to 6.0% from 6.4% in May.
Consumer Confidence and Financial Outlook
Consumer confidence in family finances showed mixed trends. Assessments of current financial situations remained solid but weakened slightly, while expectations for future financial situations reached a four-month high. The share of consumers expecting a recession within 12 months rose slightly, remaining above 2024 levels.
Purchasing plans were mixed. Car purchase intentions held steady at a six-month high, but home purchase plans declined. Appliance buying plans edged up, while electronics plans dropped. Service spending intentions weakened, though dining out, motor vehicle services, and fitness saw slight increases. Vacation plans were stable, with more interest in international travel over domestic.
Survey Details and Implications
Conducted by Toluna for The Conference Board, the monthly Consumer Confidence Survey uses an online sample to gauge consumer sentiment. The June decline in consumer confidence highlights ongoing economic concerns, particularly around tariffs and inflation, with the Expectations Index signaling potential recession risks.
