The Conference Board reported a sharp decline in U.S. consumer confidence in January 2026, with the Consumer Confidence Index falling 9.7 points to 84.5 (1985=100) from a revised 94.2 in December. The drop marked the lowest level since May 2014 and exceeded the lows recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey, conducted online by Toluna for The Conference Board, had a preliminary cutoff date of January 16, 2026.
The Present Situation Index, reflecting consumers’ views of current business and labor market conditions, decreased 9.9 points to 113.7. The Expectations Index, based on short-term outlooks for income, business, and employment, fell 9.5 points to 65.1, remaining well below the 80 threshold that historically signals a looming recession. All five components of the overall index deteriorated in January.
Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, stated, “Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened.” She noted that consumer write-in responses continued to show pessimism, with elevated mentions of prices and inflation, oil and gas prices, food and grocery prices, tariffs and trade, politics, the labor market, health/insurance, and war.
In the Present Situation Index, perceptions of current business conditions weakened to a net +0.1%. The share of consumers describing business conditions as “good” dropped to 17.9% from 19.8% in December, while those calling them “bad” rose slightly to 17.8% from 17.6%. Labor market views also softened, with the share saying jobs were “plentiful” falling to 23.9% from 27.5%, and the share saying jobs were “hard to get” rising to 20.8% from 19.1%.
For the Expectations Index, optimism declined across components. The share expecting business conditions to improve in six months fell to 15.6% from 18.7%, while those anticipating worsening conditions rose to 22.9% from 21.3%. Expectations for more jobs available dropped to 13.9% from 17.4%, and those foreseeing fewer jobs increased to 28.5% from 26.0%. Income outlook turned less positive, with 15.7% expecting increases (down from 18.8%) and 12.6% anticipating declines (down slightly from 13.0%).
Demographic breakdowns on a six-month moving average basis showed declines across all age groups, though consumers under 35 remained more confident than those 35 and older. Gen Z stayed the most optimistic generation despite the downward trend. Confidence fell in all income brackets, with those earning less than $15,000 remaining the least optimistic. Declines occurred across political affiliations, with Independents experiencing the sharpest drop.
Consumers grew more cautious about big-ticket purchases over the next six months. Plans for new cars faltered on a six-month moving average, while used car intentions rose. Homebuying expectations continued to retreat. Plans decreased for refrigerators, dishwashers, furniture, and most electronics categories except smartphones, which trended upward. Services spending intentions weakened, with shifts toward necessary and lower-cost options like restaurants, bars, take-out, streaming, healthcare, and beauty/personal care. Travel-related services, including hotels/motels and airfare/trains, showed surprising increases in planned spending despite lower vacation plans, particularly for domestic travel.
Family financial views improved slightly for current situations after a December revision, but future expectations weakened again. Recession expectations shifted modestly, with a slight rise in those saying a recession is “very likely” or that one is “already” underway.