Forecasters at two major universities predict a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
N.C. State University and Colorado State University released their seasonal outlooks. Both expect six to nine hurricanes between June 1 and Nov. 30.
The N.C. State Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences teamed with the Department of Computer Science. They project 12 to 15 named storms. Two to three of those storms could become major hurricanes.
Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science forecasts 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
Dr. Lian Xie, professor at N.C. State, offered more regional details. He predicts two to five named storms will form in the Gulf of Mexico. One or two may become hurricanes, with one likely major. The Caribbean Sea could produce one to two hurricanes, including one major storm.
Xie bases his forecast on more than 100 years of historical data. He studies Atlantic Ocean patterns and sea-surface temperatures.
Colorado State researchers noted current weak La Niña conditions. They expect these to shift to El Niño in the coming months. A moderate or strong El Niño during peak season often reduces hurricane activity.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was the first since 2015 with no hurricanes making landfall. Tropical Storm Chantal was the only system to hit land. It caused damage in the Carolinas in July. Hurricane Erin brought major coastal damage along the East Coast in August without making landfall.
Four storms reached major hurricane status in 2025: Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto, and Melissa. Hurricane Imelda was the fifth hurricane. Thirteen storms received names that year.
Hurricanes are rated by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The scale measures maximum sustained winds but does not consider storm surge or rainfall. Those two factors cause most deaths and damage.
Category 1 hurricanes have winds of 74 to 95 mph. Category 2 storms have 96 to 110 mph. Category 3 hurricanes bring 111 to 129 mph winds. Category 4 storms reach 130 to 156 mph. Category 5 hurricanes have winds of 157 mph or higher. Categories 3, 4, and 5 count as major hurricanes.
The National Hurricane Center has released the list of names for the 2026 season. They are Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred. The World Meteorological Organization updates the rotating list every six years. The names will be used again in 2032 unless any are retired.
