Nowhere in the state of Maryland has experienced as much growth as Frederick County has since the year 2020 – but no Maryland county stands as politically divided.
Maryland’s seventh largest county now has over 10,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, but had not delivered a majority of its votes for a Democrat in a presidential election in several decades until 2020.
However, the county’s over 60,000 unaffiliated voters keep Frederick voting lines split nearly evenly down the middle, making it what is commonly known as a “purple county.”
The definition of a purple area is “squishy,” according to Sunil Dasgupta, a University of Maryland, Baltimore County political science professor and host of the “I Hate Politics” podcast.
“As opposed to red and blue areas, [purple areas] are divided, and they are transitioning from one side to another,” Dasgupta said. He said these regions tend to be fairly evenly split, and hold more competitive elections as a result.
“It’s not just about [party] identification, it’s about the potential outcomes shifting,” said University of Maryland Department of Government and Politics professor Michael Hanmer. “You don’t see one party dominance in the outcomes,” said Hanmer, who also serves as director of the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement.
While Frederick had elected local Democratic representatives in the past, the county had not voted in majority for the Democratic presidential nominee since President Johnson in 1964 until 2020 when Democrat Joe Biden pulled 53.3% of the county vote. Biden’s vice president, Kamala Harris, won the county in 2024 with 52.8% of the vote.
“[Frederick] really used to be the intellectual hub of the right in Maryland, but now I think it’s losing that position,” said Dasgupta.
A growing population
Both Dasgupta and Hanmer identified two predominant factors that have led to Frederick’s transition to a purple county: a growing population, and the housing affordability that led to it.
“Affordability in Montgomery County is becoming a real issue for people, and Frederick is an attractive alternative,” said Hanmer.
“The people that are going up from Montgomery County, and even maybe Prince George’s County, are not necessarily the most staunchly Democratic, but they tend to be more liberal in terms of cultural values,” said Dasgupta.
County council member Steve McKay, a Republican from District 2, has lived in Frederick for 27 years. After first becoming politically involved through a community advocacy group in 2012, McKay was elected to the county council in 2018.
McKay echoed Dasgupta’s general sentiment, stating that increased housing development in the 2010s has led to the county’s blue shift.
“I’ve seen through my two races the precincts in Urbana and Oakdale turn Democrat majority,” he said.
Frederick County currently estimates that Urbana, a suburb seven miles south of Frederick off I-270, has a population of 15,677. This estimate marks an increase of over 17% from the 2020 U.S. Census population report of 13,304.
The president of the Frederick County Council is Brad Young, a Democrat from the deep-red District 5 which encompasses the northern half of the county including the towns of Walkersville, Thurmont and Woodsboro.
Young, a 10th generation lifelong resident of Frederick, has been involved in local politics for decades. He was first elected to and served on the county’s Democratic Central Committee from 1986 through 1990.
Young does not hold an official party role at this point, but stands as an important Democratic figure as the second-highest elected Democrat in the county, behind County Executive Jessica Fitzwater.
Similar to Dasgupta and McKay, Young also identified the expanding population as beneficial for the Democratic Party.
“Most of the newer folks tend to be more liberal to centrist,” Young said.
Rising costs
The other factor identified by Dasgupta and Hanmer was that of rising costs that result from the growth in population.
“The political preferences of people that are leaving high-cost areas tend to be more in the middle, rather than on the left,” Dasgupta said.
“The classic example of this is Californians moving out of California,” said Dasgupta, “They went all over the west when California started to become so expensive.”
While Democrats have been elected to the county executive and majority of the county council, Republicans still hold power on the law enforcement side of government, with Republicans Sheriff Chuck Jenkins and State’s Attorney J. Charles Smith III both helping to maintain a conservative counter-balance.
Maryland State Delegate April Miller is a Republican who represents District 4, which encompasses Frederick County. Miller, who grew up in the county, said that she believes that the leadership of the sheriff and state’s attorney, paired with rising prices in Montgomery County, entices newcomers in Frederick who are looking for affordable living and public safety.
Miller cited the sheriff’s and state’s attorney’s commitments to “law and order, public safety, and holding people accountable.”
“I think that has been a lot of what Frederick County has been known for,” Miller said.
The path to victory
Both Democrats and Republicans in the county have said that the path to success at the polls is through practical policy that appeals to liberals and conservatives alike.
“More moderate Democrats tend to do better than Democrats to the further left side of the party. More moderate Republicans fare better than the [farther right] side of the party,” said Young, who emphasized the importance of running candidates that can win county-wide elections.
“We hope to have collaborative messages that will appeal [to] and continue to move the needle in [red] areas,” said chair of the Frederick County Democratic Party, Mari Lee.
McKay echoed this sentiment as it pertains to Republican politics, stating that, “You need a center-oriented Republican to win a general election in Maryland, and in Frederick County.”
Miller agreed that strict partisanship is not necessarily the path forward, both for the Republican Party and the constituents of the county.
“If everyone stays in their political silos with their political labels, you’re not going to reach the point where you are able to advocate together on the areas that you agree on,” she said.
There are no “sure things” in politics, but Dasgupta said that he anticipates a continuation in the widening of the registration gap between the swelling Democratic Party and shrinking Republican Party.
“Demographic change doesn’t stop,” he said. “It is a kind of secular movement that is going to be determinative in the long run.”
Hanmer said that the highly contested political landscape of Frederick is important, just as other purple areas, both large and small, are throughout the country as a whole.
“When you have a diversity of thought, it really does put more pressure on local officials to figure out how to compromise,” he said.