Calvert County is on track to finish the fiscal year that ended June 30 at least $10 million ahead of budget. Its finance staff are already projecting a $15.3 million gap for the next one.
Both figures came out of the same Sept. 29 work session, and they sit at the center of a push by commissioners to see what a property tax cut would look like. One commissioner asked staff to model a rate cut of five or six cents that could take effect Jan. 1. Another noted that each cent matters: staff said a cent on the rate is worth a little less than $2 million a year.
What a cut would save. The county’s property tax rate is 96.7 cents per $100 of assessed value, unchanged in the FY27 budget. On a $373,400 home, the estimated 2026 median value in Calvert according to the property-tax site Ownwell, that produces about $3,611 a year in county tax. A five-cent cut would trim about $187. Six cents would trim about $224. Those figures cover the county rate only, not state or municipal taxes.
What it would cost. Finance and Budget staff put one cent at about $1.6 million in FY28, based on projected assessments, which makes five cents roughly $8 million. The math holds up: the county’s FY26 assessable base is about $15.7 billion, and one cent per $100 on that is about $1.57 million.
The gap. Staff’s preliminary FY28 planning gap of $15.3 million is before departments submit requests or the board gives direction. A key driver is that the FY27 budget used $14.1 million of prior-year fund balance, which staff said they won’t assume again. A recurring $8 million cut would push the gap to roughly $23 million. A six-cent cut would push it to about $25 million. Staff described the gap as a planning figure the board would have to close as the budget takes shape.
The cushion. The county is not short of reserves. Its general fund balance grew from about $61 million in FY17 to about $153 million in FY25, with $104 million unassigned, and the county has had a formal reserve policy since 2011. By the Chronicle’s arithmetic, that unassigned balance is roughly 27% of the $386 million FY26 budget. Staff cautioned that reserves are one-time money while a rate cut is permanent, so recurring costs need recurring revenue. The county retained AAA ratings from all three agencies this month.
Where the surplus came from. Staff said the FY26 revenue overage is driven mainly by income tax receipts, which are offsetting weaker performance elsewhere. The adopted FY27 budget raised the income tax estimate by about $17 million to roughly $139 million, still below the FY26 projection.
Assessments are part of the debate. The numbers differ by source. Finance puts the average annual increase at about 4.6% from FY22 through FY26 but plans for 2% a year through FY32. A Treasurer’s Office representative told the board assessments grew about 1.9% a year before 2021 and about 4.1% a year from 2022 through 2026. The state’s 2026 reassessment of one-third of Calvert’s properties found a 9.0% increase, phased in at one-third a year.
How Calvert compares. The state’s rate table shows Calvert at 96.7 cents since FY24, up from 92.7 cents in FY22 and FY23, with St. Mary’s at 84.78 cents and Charles at $1.205. The county’s 2016 increase, its first in 29 years, took the rate from 89.2 to 95.2 cents and raised about $8.6 million. A five-cent cut would put Calvert at 91.7 cents, still about seven cents above St. Mary’s.
The state shadow. Commissioners and staff said they’re watching Annapolis closely. The state faces a structural gap of roughly $3 billion in fiscal 2028, and agencies were told to model cuts of up to 10%. About $1.8 billion of the gap is tied to Blueprint school funding. Calvert staff said education and transportation were among the early pressure points. Preliminary state aid figures are expected around the end of December, ahead of the governor’s January budget.
What happens next. Staff plan to return Oct. 20 with the analysis, as part of their scenario planning. The FY28 budget calendar starts with departments’ requests in October and board work sessions in January, followed by hearings in March. Whether a cut could take effect mid-year is an open question: state law directs counties to set rates before June 20 for the next taxable year and doesn’t address changing them afterward.
